Pollen Concentration Observation and Forecast Service
Pollen Concentration Observation and Forecast Service |
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Pollen service in PROMOTE aims at supplying useful information about pollen dissemination over Europe and specific zoomed area. The "Northern Aeroallergen" system deals with birch and grass over Europe while the "Southern Aeroallergen" system covers a part of South European area with olive, cypress and wall pelitory. This service aims at providing European pollen monitoring, forecast system and risk area for the following days of different highly allergenic taxa in order to facilate medical measures. This service can provide meaningful information about pollen to citizens associations.
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Different models of emissions are used depending on taxon. Each system contains a meteorological model forced by global analysis and forecast (MM5 and HIRLAM). Humidity and temperature satellite data can be used to validate and be assimilated in meteorological model. Emissions rates are computed by model specific to the taxon. Vegetation characterization uses near real time vegetation growing index (ERS and MERIS). Determination of the start, peak and total amount of pollen uses phenological updated data and heat-sums computing. A dispersion model (CALPUFF and SILAM) uses these emissions rates and meteorology field in order to compute concentration fields. The obtained fields are then analysed in term of risk area or non-zero pollen concentration depending on the system.
Diseases in the respiratory system due to aeroallergens, such as rhinitis and asthma, are major causes of a demand for increased healthcare, loss of productivity and an increased rate of morbidity. Pollenosis accounts for 12 - 45 % of overall allergy cases. The sensitisation to pollen allergens is increasing in most European regions. The adverse health effects of allergens can be reduced by preemptive medical measures. However, their planning requires reliable forecasts of high atmospheric pollen concentrations (Rantio-Lehtimäki, 1994), (Rantio-Lehtimäki & Matikainen 2002).